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Predicting Potential Wildfire Impact With Burn-P3

Burn-P3 is an innovative and complex stochastic model designed to simulate wildfire behaviour in a specific landscape.

A powerful tool that takes into account numerous factors to determine the likelihood of a fire occurring, Burn-P3 acts as a means of predicting a potential fire’s impact on the surrounding community.

Overall, this software assists us in advancing the prediction of wildfire spread and intensity, providing outputs that are effectively used to produce comprehensive community wildfire risk maps.

wildfire risk assessment mapping
Left - Wildfire Threat Map of the Whistler Valley, analysis takes into consideration Burn Probability; Right – Head Fire Intensity, and Rate of Spread to determine where on the landscape the Fire is most likely to occur and spread with speed and intensity.

Why does this Innovation Matter?

The outputs produced by Burn-P3, combined with the professional knowledge and judgement of Frontera’s Registered Professional Foresters, enable us to identify high-risk forest areas and determine appropriate placement of fuel management treatments. This is particularly valuable in Community Wildfire Resiliency Plans (CWRPs), where it can assist in identifying fuel management treatment areas and help prioritise potential treatments.

At Frontera, our commitment to providing personalised solutions for our clients is a hallmark of our work. When using Burn-P3, we tailor the model to the unique needs of each client, customising the software according to the specific area being evaluated. 

By applying both Burn-P3 and exposure vulnerability mapping to a project, our team can effectively provide clients with a holistic understanding of the threat posed by wildfire in relation to their community safety. 

While the behaviour of wildfire is unpredictable, Burn-P3 offers valuable insights into fire’s potential behaviour in a specific landscape. It is an essential tool that helps our team to make informed decisions, prioritise treatments, and safeguard communities from the devastating effects of wildfires. 

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Authored by:

Mackenna Montgomery

Mackenna Montgomery

Mac holds a Masters of Geomatics in Environmental Management and is a Project Lead Forester at Frontera.

Madeline Boldt

Madeline Boldt

Madeline manages social media and content creation for Frontera.

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